These Bulls Can Contend Without Derrick Rose

Tuesday's latest in the Derrick Rose injury saga hit hard across the NBA, but it shouldn't in Chicago.

Of course it sucks that Rose, the Bulls' hometown hero and franchise player (if by contract alone), might miss the rest of the year after surgery on his knee, and here's hoping he makes a full and speedy recovery.

But for the Bulls and their fans, this isn't the end of the world, or even of the season. This team is still a championship contender.

For those of you keeping score at home, this is the third straight season Rose has sat out several games due to injury. The Bulls front office staff knows this, and they made sure last summer their team would still be competitive if Derrick's balky knees made it a hat trick.

It's turned out better than they could have anticipated.

• The Bulls' foundation is stronger than ever as Jimmy Butler has exploded to All-Star status; Joakim Noah, even in a down year, continues to be a top-five center; and newcomers Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Aaron Brooks have exceeded expectations. This is without a doubt the most talented Chicago squad outside Rose since the 2011-12 edition that went 50-16.

Another guard can join Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah in a still-stacked Bulls starting lineup.

• The Eastern Conference is ripe for the picking. Atlanta - who, by the way, is going to fail the "who has the best player in the series" test to almost any other contender - has dominated an extremely weak crop as Toronto, Washington and Cleveland have struggled to get it together. Cleveland might be the biggest threat to the Bulls, but this is the time to strike as the second LeBron era gets rolling.
• Frankly, losing Rose might help the team. Chicago's dirty little secret is Rose hasn't been very good this season - his 16 PER is about league average and only .9 above Brooks - and doesn't seem to be improving as he recuperates. While peak Rose would make the Bulls the favorite, they could be better off trading his terrible 3-point shooting and absolute refusal to drive to the basket and draw fouls - Rose's best skill in 2010-11 - for a little peace of mind this year and improved shooting and confidence when he returns to the court next season.

Chicago's dirty little secret: Derrick Rose hasn't been very good this season and doesn't seem to be improving.

The odds remain squarely against Chicago winning a championship this year - the postseason is always a crapshoot, and the loaded Western Conference means whoever emerges as Eastern Conference champion will have a huge challenge in The Finals - but the Rose-less team's chances aren't much worse than they were with him 24 hours ago. We're still in this thing, Bulls fans.

2012-13 NBA Predictions: The Halfway Point

From: Derek
To: Jason
2:49 p.m. today

We're now about halfway through the season, so let's review our NBA predictions, shall we?

As ever, we're using my adaptation of TimeTravelReview's Summer Movie Pool scoring: 13 points for correctly guessing the best record in either conference; 10 points for hitting any other rank correctly; 7 points for placing a team one rank away from its current standing; 5 points for hitting two away; and 3 points for correctly placing a team in or out of the playoffs.

The overall standings are thus:

3. Derek, 136 points

2. John Hollinger, 138 points (excuse me while I pour out another drink for my favorite NBA columnist leaving the web)

1. Jason, 172 points

Not only is your current total blowing away both me and a guy who is now paid by an NBA team to do this for a living, it's by far the best score we've ever had. The closest is your 147 in our first year, 2010-11.

Your conference scores are especially stunning: 94 in the East bests our previous conference record of 80 (you, '10-11), and your 78 in the West beats every other score on the board save Hollinger's East at 81.

If we ended now, your margin of victory over me, 36, would approach the largest ever. As you well know, I've lost each previous year: by 38 in '10-11 and by 12 last year. I've never beaten even on of your conference scores.

My biggest nadir appears to be nailing teams down. While you correctly hit Miami, Chicago, Atlanta, Oklahoma City and Denver, I only got Miami on the nose. Difficult, that.

A few teams have been relatively predictable:

Miami - The champs are #1 in the East. Yawn.

San Antonio - Behind a Duncan resurgence, the Spurs chug along unabated.

Indiana - Paul George's leap and Danny Granger's injury means treading water for the Pacers, though not exactly as anticipated.

Memphis - Behind Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have become a legit title threat.

Charlotte - After a fun start that worried me, the Bobcats are back to sucking air.

Phoenix - Those post-Nash draft picks can't come soon enough.

Sacramento - We all knew this team would be horrid, although I for one didn't imagine the Maloofs would find a buyer so soon. Have they seen this roster? Good luck, Seattle.

Several proved brilliance on one side or the other:

Chicago - Our beloved Bulls have made you look like Nostradamus. Our biggest disagreement was how well this team could play without Derrick Rose. You said top-three seed; I said barely scraping in the tournament, and that was including two months of winning with #1 back. Two All-Stars and 25 wins later, I tip my cap. Now can this team please stop beating the Heat and Celtics but losing to the Bobcats and Wizards already?

I love this team because they can turn a schedule loss minus Deng & Rose in which they trailed by double digits into a game. #BullsGrizzlies
— Derek Beigh (@zorak9379) January 20, 2013

Nothing represents this #Bulls season like Kirk Hinrich shooting an open three and missing everything.
— Derek Beigh (@zorak9379) December 26, 2012

Oklahoma City - Hollinger and I had the Thunder regressing, but they've stayed healthy and effective post-Harden and proved you right. This pick alone gave you a ten-point boost over me.

Toronto - For some strange reason you put the Raptors in the playoffs. How do you feel about that now?

Denver - You nailed the Nuggets staying a marginal West team, while Hollinger and I loved the Iguodala move and picked them to finish with home court. This could still change if, say, they traded for Pau Gasol (TRADE FOR PAU GASOL, SOMEBODY), but to date you're the genius.

Brooklyn - Hollinger and I nailed the Nets ascending to an easy playoff spot, while you had them fighting for a berth.

Atlanta - I felt good early about buying the revamped Hawks hard, but they've slumped and made you and Hollinger look like geniuses.

Houston - I loved the Harden trade, and the Rockets have made me look brilliant for feeling that way.

Dallas - Hollinger and I predicted a slump for the Mavs, although Dirk's injury makes me think you're closer to correct by putting them in the playoffs.

Cleveland - Hollinger and I both anticipated a massive breakout for Kyrie Irving carrying the Cavs within spitting distance of the postseason. Not so much. You, meanwhile, forecast them even worse than they actually are, but not by much.

Portland - Hollinger and I expected major regression from the Blazers, but you correctly imagined they would be near the postseason. Inside info on Damian Lillard, perhaps?

Philadelphia - We both predicted slumps for the 76ers, but yours was bigger, and Hollinger didn't foresee one at all.

Minnesota - Kevin Love's injury derailed what Hollinger and I thought would be a breakout year for the Wolves. I still think they could prove you wrong, and I'm not sure why you picked them so low, but the numbers are with you so far.

Milwaukee - Hollinger and I both had Milwaukee fighting for a playoff spot, while you had them 11th in the East. This despite Scott Skiles getting canned mid-season yet again.

There's comedy, there's high comedy, and there's Scott Skiles being fired mid-winter by a Central team and succeeded by Jim Boylan again.
— Derek Beigh (@zorak9379) January 8, 2013

Detroit - Hollinger and I both saw another bleak season for the Pistons, but you had a little more faith, putting them correctly just outside the playoffs.

Orlando - You had the Magic slightly higher than Hollinger and I did, and they've exceeded even your prediction.

Teams that made idiots of us all:

Lakers - Dear Lord, what happened to Kobe and co.? We all picked the Lake Show high, and even Hollinger's conservative 4 seed was mind-blowingly wrong. I picked this team to win the title, and they're out of the playoffs. Oof.

What were the odds a team playing Steve Nash and Pau Gasol coached by Mike D'Antoni would be not just bad but boring? #FreeTheForeigners
— Derek Beigh (@zorak9379) January 25, 2013

New York - The second biggest story of the season, the resurgence of roundball in the Big Apple, is also one none of us anticipated. You were the only one to correctly guess that the Knicks would be better than the Nets, and you had the highest seed for New York, but it was still a 5 rather than a 2. Carmelo Anthony bamboozled us all.

Clippers - None of us forecast Vinny Del Negro's boys to be nearly this good behind Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and a smothering bench. This inspired one of my favorite under-the-radar storylines of the season:

There's comedy, there's high comedy and there's Gregg Popovich battling Vinny Del Negro for the right to coach the West All-Stars.
— Derek Beigh (@zorak9379) January 25, 2013

Boston - We all bit on the Celtics as a top-3 East team, but they've disappointed. Rajon Rondo has not become what I expected.

Golden State - The Warriors are good?! I still refuse to believe this.

Washington - Call this the John Wall effect, or perhaps the John Wall's injuries effect. (Yeah, it could use some work.) They did just beat the Bulls...

New Orleans - The Hornets have been sneaky better, although certainly not good. Bodes well for them if/when Austin Rivers finds his head. 

I'm not giving in on the season yet, but I'll set a secondary goal of hitting within 25 points of you. 

More importantly, how good can this Bulls team really be? If nothing else, this season has brought this:

Belinelli is becoming my fave of our many 2 guards. With Rose, Deng, Gibson and Noah, we finally have a 5-man unit I like. #BullsGrizzlies
— Derek Beigh (@zorak9379) January 20, 2013

And this:

Every time I watch the '12-13 Bulls, I can't get over how much Marco Belinelli looks like Benjamin Rabin. #BullsGrizzlies
— Derek Beigh (@zorak9379) January 20, 2013

Here's hoping Rose and the guys can gel in time for the playoffs and make some noise. I for one would love the hell out of a Knicks upset or a showdown with the Pacers.

I'll close with this: We miss you, number one.

2012-13 NBA Predictions

Each fall for the last three, my college friend Jason and I share our NBA ranking predictions, talk a lot of smack and forget them until May.

Each spring for the last two, I've gotten my butt handed to me, and the following fall I've still claimed this would be the year I get off the schneid.

Some things never change.

The following is my (slightly edited) response to Jason's latest predictions. Here's hoping Spring 2013 is kind to me.

Enjoy.

You're a crazy man and you have no business in sports.

Here's the link to the chart, including our predictions, (ESPN writer and stat geek heartthrob) John Hollinger's forecast and last year's results. I should also give credit to Bill Simmons, who I listened to in preparation for this, but he doesn't have any (written) predictions.

My (superior) outlook:

Miami: Dominant, assured and unstoppable; LeBron's quest to take down MJ begins

Boston: Restocked and refreshed, the bastards

Indiana: Predictably good, but not frightening anybody

Atlanta: Improved despite Johnson loss, and got a brighter future out of it

Brooklyn: Won't guard anyone, but who'll guard them?

Chicago: A half-season without Rose or the bench mob hurts

Philadelphia: 60 games of Andrew Bynum is enough for East playoffs

New York: Love the pieces, hate how they fit; the worst-run franchise in sports

Milwaukee: Tough, scrappy frontcourt, but identically-awful guards 

Cleveland: Irving makes the leap, but have you seen this roster?

Washington: Ditto with Wall

Toronto: Like Lowry, Bargnani, but nothing else here to get excited about yet

Detroit: Monroe is the one redeeming part of a trainwreck on both ends 

Charlotte: Hey, they're not the worst team in the league anymore!

Orlando: This - Howard's old mates, plus the embarrassing trade bait pu pu platter - is

San Antonio: Old reliable storms through regular season again with Leonard era on horizon

Lakers: Kobe and co. struggle to mesh before April, but Finals date with Miami awaits

Denver: Pieces fit beautifully and recall the Seven Seconds or Less Suns, but who's the Nuggets' star?

Oklahoma City: Second unit collapses post-Harden and robs a few wins, but a tough conference finals out

Memphis: Healthy Z-Bo makes or breaks Grizzlies, so this is wrong one way or the other

Utah: The defensive-minded, foul-crazy version of the Denver Nuggets

Clippers: Paul and Blake are still great, but front office and bench dysfunction boils over

Minnesota: Love and Rubio are the next big thing, but not until January; watch out in round one, Spurs

Houston: Harden, Lin and Asik are a decent trio, but youth robs Rockets of playoffs yet again 

Dallas: Dirk - balky knee and all - carries a load of drek to a .500 finish, but no postseason

Golden State: Like Grizzlies, all is on health of Curry and Bogut; I'm not betting on it

New Orleans: Young and frisky, but don't trust Gordon to be the guy or Davis to be an instant sensation

Portland: Aldridge rots in obscurity with intriguing but disappointing flotsam

Sacramento: Forget Sac-town or Vegas; Kings shape Stern's last act by bringing basketball back to Seattle

Phoenix: Life after Nash is going to be brutal until those lottery picks are cashed in

As for our Bulls, I'm having a hard time adjusting to following a decent-but-not-great team - April 28 still lingers in my mind - amid the consistently awful Cubs, excellent Bears and depressing Illini. Hollinger made me feel better with this in his Chicago forecast:

In the short term, the good news for Chicago is there is still enough talent on hand to field a very competitive team. The Bulls went 18-9 without Rose last season, and their two most identifiable characteristics -- manic defense and prolific rebounding -- had little to do with their floor general. Nonetheless, the playoffs showed how much harder it is for Chicago to sustain a cohesive offensive attack without him. It will be even harder after the Bulls made several secondary cuts.

The net result is a team that several fan bases would be glad to have, especially if Tom Thibodeau can keep it playing hair-on-fire defense, but one that will likely disappoint those who witnessed the past two campaigns.

How do you feel about our boys? I think your prediction is asinine, but I hope they prove you right.

Would a Title Without Rose Smell So Sweet?

After last year's Eastern Conference Finals loss to Miami, every Chicago Bulls fan I know pinned their hopes for the 2011-12 season on a single article.

After winning the NBA MVP in his second season, Derrick Rose wasn't celebrating; instead he locked himself in his house, ordered pizza, brooded and began divining ways to win a championship. This time, nothing was going to stop him.

55 games later, things look a little different for Rose. He's missed Chicago's last 11 games and, with the playoffs less than a month away, hasn't played a minute since March 12. Despite his absence, the team has played well, winning 14 of 21 and continuing to lead the NBA in wins.

Somewhere between that 14-7 record and Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory, I couldn't stop wondering: Could the Bulls win the 2011-12 NBA championship without their MVP?

Every pundit on Earth seems to believe the Bulls are the favorite or extremely close to Miami and Oklahoma City, and with good reason. The Bulls have the best winning percentage, .764, in the NBA; they're perched neck-and-neck with Miami atop John Hollinger's NBA Power Rankings; and Chicago projects to finish with a better 82-game record (67-15) than last year's 62-20 squad.

Given that they've accomplished all that with Rose missing 40 percent of their games, I would submit that not only are the Bulls the favorite, it's by a pretty wide margin.

So how much of that margin could they lose?

With Rose, the Bulls are 28-6 (.823), about 12 full-season wins better than their .666 percentage without him. Rose's injuries haven't been the only thing plaguing the team, however: Joakim Noah got off to a slow start after the lockout, and Luol Deng (46 games played) and Rip Hamilton (17) have been hurt as well.

Given the randomness of the NBA playoffs, is it that bizarre to think a 54-win (.666) team could win it all? Last year's champion (Dallas, .695) won 57, the same as the Lakers team that preceded them. Those Lakers went to seven games in the Finals against a 50-win Celtics team.

The better question may be what a Chicago title without Rose would mean to the star's future. While I still contend that, as Hollinger says, The Derrick Rose Story didn't deserve to win MVP last year, #1 is undisputedly Chicago's leader. He's sixth in the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating after finishing ninth last season and just signed a five-year, $95 million extension. He's not going anywhere.

Still, Rose took last year's loss to Miami hard. Wouldn't he take it even harder if Chicago - his hometown squad, a fact he seems to enjoy more than any other star in pro sports - completed its mission without him? What if Carlos Boozer won Finals MVP and Rose had to watch in a suit as #5 accepted the trophy that would look so good next to Rose's regular season award?

From what we know about Rose, he'd probably deflect any questions about his future with humility and grace while giving his teammates and coaching staff all the credit. He'd talk about coming back better than ever the next year to help the team start another three-peat.

When Rose stepped away, with only his friends and the next season to comfort him, the story might be different.

Delivery drivers, start your engines.