I decided a couple years ago to start playing myself, and there have been memorable ups (predicting Toy Story 3 would rule 2010 and that Harry Potter and Transformers would do the same in 2011) and downs (guessing Prince of Persia would be 2010's runner-up and that Super 8 would take fourth in 2010).
Nonetheless, I've done more than well enough to convince me to square off with the Rad Guys and Slashfilmers for another season. I haven't yet read their picks - I'll do so and respond to them at the end of this post - so here's my unaltered take on the top 10 for 2012.
Dark Horses: Madagascar 3, Prometheus, What to Expect When You're Expecting
This category is where I put movies that could be great and under-appreciated or appeal directly to a limited fanbase. Madagascar could find enough children's ears to be a success (Cars 2); Prometheus could cross over from geeks to the mainstream (Inception); and What to Expect could be this year's big date movie (Sex and the City). I'm not predicting any of those things will happen, but they're likely enough to take a flier at the bottom of my chart.
10. G.I. Joe: Retaliation
It's not a good sign when the director implores you to give his big, dumb action sequel a shot, but it hardly matters: as much as critics disliked Rise of the Cobra (34% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes), it made $150 million domestically and $300 million worldwide. Throw some action stars in a blender with a solid franchise, pop the popcorn and watch the money pour in, Paramount.
9. The Expendables 2
Speaking of big, dumb action movies, they don't come any bigger or dumber than Sly Stallone's latest. The first Expendables was a modest success, and the sequel has more stars, a higher budget and the backing of a name the public knows.
8. Snow White and the Huntsman
Universal and I are both counting on the the Twilight audience to follow Kristen Stewart to another violent, vaguely-sci-fi romance. This movie is the first I've had no confidence placing: it could be a colossal hit or a John Carter-level debacle. Sadly, I'm betting on mediocrity carrying the day.
7. Battleship
It's passe by now to compare this to Transformers, but it's clearly the influence Universal has drawn from, and I think they'll be rewarded for their pandering. This whole bottom rung is depressing me; let's just move on.
6. Brave
Here's a movie I can get behind! I personally don't think Brave will be great - How to Train Your Dragon has been to this same place recently and spectacularly, and a great rather than good Pixar movie is a surprise at this point - but it will be moderately intelligent and encourage people to aspire to things. (That used to be Pixar standard as well. *sigh* I'm glaring at you, Cars 2.)
5. Men in Black 3
As much as I'd like to see Sony pay for needlessly reviving a franchise no one really missed with a suspect sequel premise and more than a few critical warning signs, a few powerful indicators point to commercial success: nostalgia, originality and Will Smith. Franchise fans will see it and probably hate it; sci-fi fans will see it and probably hate it; Smith fans will see it, swoon and forget about it the next day.
4. The Bourne Legacy
I tend to be provincial when predicting things - my countless NCAA brackets ruined by Illinois and American Idol dreams wrecked by Elise Testone say hi - and this wager has been no exception, as last year's top ten was full of movies I wanted to see do well (by and large they did). This summer, however, is structured so the first movie I'm legitimately excited about is Bourne at #4. After The Town and MI4, I'll watch Jeremy Renner do anything, and the first trailer did nothing to dampen my enthusiasm. Hopefully the public will agree.
3. The Amazing Spider-Man
Had I gone truly biased, this would be my #1 grosser of the year. The director of 500 Days of Summer. The stars of The Social Network, Zombieland and The West Wing. And, of course, my favorite superhero of all time. My excitement for this movie could not be higher (despite an irritatingly spoilerific trailer), and I think America will get on board as well. Just not as much as they will with the two true superhero pillars of the summer.
2. The Dark Knight Rises
In the years I've been predicting summer movies, there has never been a tougher decision than The Dark Knight Rises versus my #1 prediction. There's no doubt it belongs near the top: after The Dark Knight shattered records on its way to number one and Inception placed fourth, it's time to stop doubting Christopher Nolan. The movie itself, however, may not be mind-blowing - I thought for sure it would not until this week's final trailer - and I think it will lose repeat viewership. I'm sure, though, it will still do more than well enough to give Nolan carte blanche on his next project as he had with Inception. See, Hollywood can be good!
1. The Avengers
Speaking of Hollywood goodness, I was stunned and thrilled a major movie studio would hand a film of this stature to Joss Whedon. The man is a genius, of course, but a misunderstood one, and I never imagined I'd get to see his version of The Avengers. It's possible I'm lost in the hype, but I'll be disappointed if this isn't not only my favorite movie of the year but one of my top 25 all-time. Regardless, it checks off all the financial boxes: sequel, action movie, big stars, perfect release window and likely to be seen by nuts like me five or six times. Welcome to the A list, Joss. Don't forget I liked you before it was cool.
As for the TRS and Slashfilm predictions, I'm frightened that Peter, the canniest bettor, believes heavily in my hardest omissions: Ice Age 4, a children's movie sequel that will likely be awful but make a ton anyway (how many times am I going to need mention Cars 2?!), and Ted, which could ride the Family Guy audience to hit status or be a giant flop.
Regardless, many of us will have egg on our faces by September, and I can't wait to find out what disappoints, what surprises and what rules in the 2012 summer movie season.
(LTTP) TRS-Slashfilm Summer Movie Wager results: @slashfilm 47, @dannytrs 51, @jeffcannata 56, @alexalbrecht 60. @zorak9379: 55
— Derek Beigh (@zorak9379) September 23, 2012
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