Tuesday, October 30, 2012

2012-13 NBA Predictions

Each fall for the last three, my college friend Jason and I share our NBA ranking predictions, talk a lot of smack and forget them until May.

Each spring for the last two, I've gotten my butt handed to me, and the following fall I've still claimed this would be the year I get off the schneid.

Some things never change.

The following is my (slightly edited) response to Jason's latest predictions. Here's hoping Spring 2013 is kind to me.

Enjoy.

You're a crazy man and you have no business in sports.

Here's the link to the chart, including our predictions, (ESPN writer and stat geek heartthrob) John Hollinger's forecast and last year's results. I should also give credit to Bill Simmons, who I listened to in preparation for this, but he doesn't have any (written) predictions.

My (superior) outlook:

Miami: Dominant, assured and unstoppable; LeBron's quest to take down MJ begins
Boston: Restocked and refreshed, the bastards
Indiana: Predictably good, but not frightening anybody
Atlanta: Improved despite Johnson loss, and got a brighter future out of it
Brooklyn: Won't guard anyone, but who'll guard them?
Chicago: A half-season without Rose or the bench mob hurts
Philadelphia: 60 games of Andrew Bynum is enough for East playoffs
New York: Love the pieces, hate how they fit; the worst-run franchise in sports
Milwaukee: Tough, scrappy frontcourt, but identically-awful guards 
Cleveland: Irving makes the leap, but have you seen this roster?
Washington: Ditto with Wall
Toronto: Like Lowry, Bargnani, but nothing else here to get excited about yet
Detroit: Monroe is the one redeeming part of a trainwreck on both ends 
Charlotte: Hey, they're not the worst team in the league anymore!
Orlando: This - Howard's old mates, plus the embarrassing trade bait pu pu platter - is

San Antonio: Old reliable storms through regular season again with Leonard era on horizon
Lakers: Kobe and co. struggle to mesh before April, but Finals date with Miami awaits
Denver: Pieces fit beautifully and recall the Seven Seconds or Less Suns, but who's the Nuggets' star?
Oklahoma City: Second unit collapses post-Harden and robs a few wins, but a tough conference finals out
Memphis: Healthy Z-Bo makes or breaks Grizzlies, so this is wrong one way or the other
Utah: The defensive-minded, foul-crazy version of the Denver Nuggets
Clippers: Paul and Blake are still great, but front office and bench dysfunction boils over
Minnesota: Love and Rubio are the next big thing, but not until January; watch out in round one, Spurs
Houston: Harden, Lin and Asik are a decent trio, but youth robs Rockets of playoffs yet again 
Dallas: Dirk - balky knee and all - carries a load of drek to a .500 finish, but no postseason
Golden State: Like Grizzlies, all is on health of Curry and Bogut; I'm not betting on it
New Orleans: Young and frisky, but don't trust Gordon to be the guy or Davis to be an instant sensation
Portland: Aldridge rots in obscurity with intriguing but disappointing flotsam
Sacramento: Forget Sac-town or Vegas; Kings shape Stern's last act by bringing basketball back to Seattle
Phoenix: Life after Nash is going to be brutal until those lottery picks are cashed in

As for our Bulls, I'm having a hard time adjusting to following a decent-but-not-great team - April 28 still lingers in my mind - amid the consistently awful Cubs, excellent Bears and depressing Illini. Hollinger made me feel better with this in his Chicago forecast:

In the short term, the good news for Chicago is there is still enough talent on hand to field a very competitive team. The Bulls went 18-9 without Rose last season, and their two most identifiable characteristics -- manic defense and prolific rebounding -- had little to do with their floor general. Nonetheless, the playoffs showed how much harder it is for Chicago to sustain a cohesive offensive attack without him. It will be even harder after the Bulls made several secondary cuts.
The net result is a team that several fan bases would be glad to have, especially if Tom Thibodeau can keep it playing hair-on-fire defense, but one that will likely disappoint those who witnessed the past two campaigns.
How do you feel about our boys? I think your prediction is asinine, but I hope they prove you right.

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